http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/Divided-UP-may-lose-its-political-clout/articleshow/10763127.cms
Divided UP may lose its political clout
Ashish Tripathi, TNN | Nov 17, 2011, 06.15AM IST
LUCKNOW: The opposition might accuse chief minister Mayawati of trying
to divert attention from her five years of misrule by proposing
division of UP, but it seems to have fallen in the Maya jaal. Behenji,
as of now, has succeeded in shifting the debate. It is evident from
the fact that for past one week, since the news was broken, political
parties are only trying to make their position clear on UP's
reorganization into four small states. Political observers say the
issue may provide some short-term political gains but in the long run
it will reduce the political clout of UP which has given eight prime
ministers to the country.
The opposition is uneasy over the issue of reorganization because none
of them is clean on the issue of corruption and criminalisation of
politics. In fact, corruption and criminalisation has almost become a
non-issue . All the parties are depending on caste and communal
combinations to build their campaign . They are also aware that
eventually floating votes would be crucial. In a bitter four-corner
contest, a shift of 2,000 to 5,000 votes may decide fate in many seats
as it happened in 2007 when the victory margin in nearly 120 seats was
below 5,000. The reorganization issue is appeasing as well as
emotional. One can find opinion, both in favour and against, at the
grassroots. Hence, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party are
trying to gain by making their position clear, whereas the Congress
and the Bharatiya Janata Party are treading cautiously.
"Mayawati is trying to reduce the impact of anti-incumbency factor
through her well crafted move but she would be successful only if her
party is able to convince people at the ground level that she is
really serious about reorganization ," says political analyst Sudhir
Panwar. He says SP is trying to strike chord with those who are
emotional about UP's division. The Congress and BJP, he adds, are
trying to avoid the issue because of their national presence. "The
issue will further centralise the upcoming elections between BSP and
SP," Panwar says. However, Panwar warns that though the argument that
smaller states can be better managed seems good, what people need to
understand is that the real development comes through good governance.
Further, he adds, the Centre becomes more powerful in the federal
structure, if states are small.
Political observer Deepak Mishra says the smaller states would give
rise to more regional parties based on sub-castes such as Bhumihars
and Rajbhars in east, Jats in west and Muslims in the northwest
region. He says Mayawati stands to gain politically from the move as
her core constituency - dalits - is evenly spread throughout the
state. She can also hope to benefit from regional sentiments in the
east, west and Bundelkhand, Mishra adds. "The SP is opposing the move
because it will split its Yadav vote (9% of the population) is
concentrated in pockets of east and west UP. In such a situation,
Muslims may also leave SP as the community tactically vote for the
party which is in position to defeat BJP," says Mishra. The BJP, he
adds, is worried because division of the state might create regions in
west and east UP with high Muslim concentration.
The Congress, says political analyst Ashish Awasthi, is ambivalent
over the issue because it knows that speaking against it would be
risky when party is trying to revive itself in the state. On the other
hand, he says, speaking in favour of division will create problems for
the Congress in Andhra Pradesh where the issue of separate statehood
for Telengana region is on fire and would encourage those who are
demanding separate statehood for Vidarbha in Maharashtra and
Gorkhaland in West Bengal. Smaller parties like the RLD, according to
Awasthi, are supporting the move because they would be major gainers
in smaller states. However, he said, both the people and the political
parties should keep in mind that division, if it happens, should be in
public interest, otherwise politicisation of the issue would lead to
frustration among the people resulting in serious repercussions.
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