Does Bihar show the way?
November 28, 2010 10:19:48
Chandan Mitra
Post-Mandal, caste remains a key factor but vote-banks have been
dented by the mantra of development, holding out hope for Uttar
Pradesh
Long years ago one of India's first talk shows, A Question of Answers,
anchored by Vir Sanghvi, once featured a programme on social
empowerment. I recall one particular episode mainly because of Ms Uma
Bharati, who featured in it alongside Ms Meira Kumar, academic
Dipankar Gupta and I. Talking about the impact of the Mandal Report,
Ms Uma Bharati made a telling observation, saying that backward
classes had won the "roti ki ladai" but were far from victory in the
ongoing "izzat ki ladai". Projecting the BJP's plank of 'Ram, roti,
insaaf', she insisted that the real battle for backwards' empowerment
lay ahead, but could not be won without wider social acceptability,
thus faulting VP Singh's approach of pitting OBCs against upper
castes.
I recall Ms Uma Bharati's down-to-earth perception in the context of
the tectonic shift in north India's socio-political equations crafted
by the voters of Bihar. The architect of the shift is undoubtedly
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who has emerged as the icon of post-Mandal
politics as a result of his ability to over-ride divisive caste
politics and inject the vitamin of development to cement a grand
social coalition, which paid the JD(U)-BJP alliance a phenomenal
dividend in India's most caste-driven State. It needs to be borne in
mind, though, that Ms Uma Bharati was not entirely right when she
claimed that backwards had won their battle for economic opportunity
with the implementation of the Mandal Report. Although VP Singh's
widely despised move was a landmark in the process of promoting
equality of opportunity, it was only a half-measure that benefited
only the upper strata (or creamy layer) among the OBCs.
Politically, however, the OBCs took a quantum leap in the 1990s with
Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav forging a new social
alliance, M-Y for short, to successfully dislodge the Brahmin-Thakur
dominated Congress coalition of the 1970s and 1980s. While the
Congress slid lower and lower in voter preference in the Hindi
heartland, the emotive appeal of the BJP's 'samrasta' philosophy,
fusing together social groups with conflicting interests, emerged as a
parallel electoral force, particularly in Uttar Pradesh.
But the Mandalites were far from exhausted. While Mr Mulayam Singh
Yadav at least made an attempt to reach out beyond the M-Y combine, Mr
Lalu Prasad Yadav stuck doggedly to the formulation, convinced it was
too preponderant in Bihar for him to be ever overthrown. He had reason
to be confident. With the feudal mindset more dominant among Bihar's
upper castes than elsewhere, he believed that the non-Yadav OBCs would
remain steadfast in their allegiance to the Yadav-led coalition. He
proved this twice, first in 1995 by winning a handsome victory in the
Assembly poll, negating the upper castes' fond belief that he could
win in 1990 only on the Janata Dal wave but never on his own. Although
on a lesser scale, he repeated his triumph in 2000, retaining power
for 15 unbroken years, much of it by proxy.
The stranglehold of Mandalite politics over Bihar did not break
easily: It took two elections within a span of seven months in 2005
for Mr Nitish Kumar to achieve what appeared impossible for a long
time. But once Bihar's voters decided to give post-Mandal politics a
leg up in November 2005, there has been no looking back. Mr Nitish
Kumar has been accused by Mandal purists of dividing the OBC coalition
by aggressively reaching out to smaller OBC communities, lower-caste
Muslims (Pasmanda) and creating a sub-group of 'Mahadalits'. In
effect, he pitted the MBCs (Most Backward Classes) against the
dominant Yadavs, who started behaving like a new elite. The doyen of
socialist politics in Bihar, Karpoori Thakur, had gauged the
importance of this section and carved a category called Extremely
Backward Classes (EBC), earmarking three per cent Government jobs for
them way back in the late-1970s. Thakur was sensitive to their
aspirations probably because as a Nai (barber), he belonged to the EBC
segment. Similarly, Mr Nitish Kumar's Kurmi origins may have given him
a good understanding of the non-Yadav OBC resentment that was brewing
under 15 years of Lalu-Rabri rule.
Although the Mandalite model has been dethroned, it would be naïve to
conclude, as many commentators have done, that caste factors have been
decisively trounced in this election. Caste has not disappeared from
voting behaviour, but castes have voted tactically to maximise their
clout. The BJP has benefited not only from upper caste consolidation,
but also the perception among many others that Mr Nitish Kumar too
needs to have a restraining hand over him. Angered they might have
been by Mr Kumar's Bataidari Bill, but the landholding classes decided
that he was a much better bet than Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav, provided some
checks and balances were put in place. The BJP's own brand of OBC
politics, personified in Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi, helped it
further to tilt the balance in most constituencies for, it has to be
borne in mind, upper castes do not constitute a majority even in a
single Assembly segment. Besides, the BJP has steadfastly sought to
build a social alliance comprising upper castes and OBCs, with a
smattering of tribals — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat being
successful examples.
Perhaps the most significant aspect of the Bihar result is the
palpable division in the Muslim vote, which has hitherto determinedly
stuck to Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav or strayed occasionally to the Congress.
There is sufficient evidence to suggest that Muslims in many areas
overcame their traditional resistance to press the button against the
lotus symbol, while unhesitatingly voting for JD(U) candidates
elsewhere. Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav's M-Y bastion now lies in a shambles.
Does this indicate 'vote-bank politics', a euphemism for Muslim
appeasement by secular-fundamentalist parties, has reached a dead end?
That may be too hasty a conclusion, but Bihar shows that BJP may no
longer be untouchable for Muslims if they are convinced that checks
and balances are in place — a line of thinking somewhat in tandem with
upper caste reasoning.
But most importantly, Mr Nitish Kumar played on aspirations to break
the cast iron grip of vote-banks. Voters of every caste may have voted
mostly as a group, but the underlying reason for their voting
preference was the faith that economic prosperity can be ensured only
by the JD(U)-BJP combine; that the Lalu-Paswan team preached politics
that is passé; and that the Congress is a non-starter. Is this then
the new shape of post-Mandal politics? Can development modulate
watertight caste blocks and fuse them into viable socio-electoral
coalitions? If so, are we poised to see a similar tectonic shift in
Uttar Pradesh which has so far not succumbed to the appeal of economic
growth?
Ms Mayawati was handed a huge opportunity in 2007 when her watertight
Dalit vote was topped up by upper castes, especially Brahmins, to give
her a majority in the Assembly. She may still succeed in retaining
this alliance in the absence of alternatives. Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav
is fighting a rearguard battle on the receding shores of Yadav faith,
the Congress is more hype than substance and the BJP is nowhere near
recapturing the social alliance it forged in the 1990s. But with Bihar
showing the way, can Uttar Pradesh be far behind?
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