http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=471580&version=1&template_id=40&parent_id=22Latest Update: Wednesday23/11/2011November, 2011, 12:00 AM Doha Time
UP's bifurcation: Mayawati's masterstroke or overkill?
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati has proved that she has the
electoral muscle to bulldoze the state reorganisation resolution
through the assembly. As planned and announced, she moved the
controversial resolution in the winter session on Monday and got it
passed by a voice vote without discussion and debate amid opposition
furore.
The proceedings had Mayawati's stamp embedded all over. Whether or not
she is ready to take her idea to its logical conclusion, politically
the move is viewed as an electoral masterstroke or overkill. Its
timing clearly shows that her move is aimed at confusing the
opposition parties and setting the agenda in the run-up to the polls
early next year.
The bifurcation move is not new. Most parties have articulated its
need with varying nuances at various occasions. Nevertheless, when
Mayawati reiterated the demand recently, it set the cat among the
pigeons. Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party is set against any
division of UP as his party's backward caste vote base is not as
evenly spread as Mayawati party's - BSP's - core following of Dalits
in all the proposed states. With a clever political gambit, Mayawati
has added to the worries of not only the SP but also of the Congress
which, being the ruling party at the Centre, is not well placed to
take a clear stand on UP's division because of the demands for
separate states like Telangana.
The proposed division of Uttar Pradesh into four states - Purvanchal
(east UP), Bundelkhand, Awadh (central UP) and Paschim Pradesh (west
UP) - is not supported by any popular agitations, yet the idea is not
without some resonance in the four regions.
UP with a population of 200mn and a geographical area of almost
241,000sq km is too large to be governed properly from Lucknow as its
capital. The state is of such a huge size despite the creation of
Uttarakhand comprising its former hill regions of Garhwal and Kumaon
in the recent past. Currently, UP has 75 districts, 80 Lok Sabha seats
and 403 assembly seats.
So the move may help Mayawati marginalise the Congress in some areas,
hijack the Bharatiya Janata Party's agenda of supporting small states
and undermine the SP's ambitions of playing a larger national role.
But whether this will actually be a game-changer in the elections, or
alter the political discourse in any significant way, is open to
debate. Governance, or its absence, will still play a crucial part
when voters go to polls. Life has not really improved all that much
for the state's citizens under her watch, even for the Dalits, the
marginalised social groups whose cause she champions. The mammoth
statues she has erected across Uttar Pradesh may be powerful visual
symbols of Dalit assertion, but it's not enough for those who are yet
to see their lives improve in real terms.
It is also too much to expect that the hot air building under the
proposed division will deflect attention from other crucial issues,
such as the BSP government's track record and allegations of
corruption against the chief minister. The proposal can also be seen
as an illusion to deceive the people of the state, who have been
looking towards politicians for delivery and accountability every five
years. Voters booted out Mulayam in 2007 and opted for Mayawati in the
same hope. Does she foresee any setback in repeating her performance
of 2007 when her party got a comfortable majority in the UP assembly?
Mayawati's diversionary tactic, however, has real implications beyond
the state. She seems to have not fully thought through the ripple
effect of the move on statehood demands in other parts of the country.
Though the Congress, in principle, supports the creation of smaller
states, the Manmohan Singh government can hardly be expected to
concede the demand for dividing UP when it is struggling to cap the
agitation to carve Telangana out of Andhra Pradesh and at a time when
ally Trinamul Congress has just made peace with Gorkhaland campaigners
in West Bengal.
By lobbing the ball in the Centre's court, Mayawati has offered it a
damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't option.
The arguments of carving out smaller states out of bigger ones like
UP, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh have been around
for long and have received tacit and open support from national
parties. The BJP had in fact gone ahead with the division of UP, Bihar
and Madhya Pradesh when it was in power at the Centre.
After the birth of Uttarakhand there has been no strong movement for
dividing UP further. Mayawati floated such an idea after capturing
power in 2007. She had also written many letters to Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh in this regards under the guise of better
administration and efficiency.
What is significant about Mayawati's move this time is that she wants
the UP assembly to put a stamp of approval on the division plan before
the ball is lobbed in Centre's court.
In most cases, creating smaller states satisfies regional demands,
creates compact administrative units, kicks off several rounds of
investment and construction and empowers local leaders with greater
responsibility. So splitting UP into four smaller states each with its
own capital and administrative setup ideally could do a world of good.
But things could also get worse if the political leaders of a new
state behave in an irresponsible manner as in the case of Jharkhand,
which has seen eight short-lived governments since its birth as a new
state 11 years ago.
Though the assembly has passed the resolution, the four-way split of
the country's biggest state is by no means a done deal. Any
reorganisation of states must be approved by parliament, and it is
highly unlikely this could happen in the immediate future.
Mayawati is well aware of this, but her objective clearly is to seize
the initiative. The Centre's inaction will hand Mayawati a populist,
emotive issue with which to divert attention from opposition charges
of poor governance, corruption and nepotism. She may consider her move
a political masterstroke, but in her hurry to focus on her narrow
political goal, she might have over-calculated the benefits to her
party, while needlessly raking up controversies and tensions.
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