Saturday, February 19, 2011

[ZESTCaste] PMK tie-up puts DMK on a strong wicket

 

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/PMK-tie-up-puts-DMK-on-a-strong-wicket/articleshow/7524546.cms

PMK tie-up puts DMK on a strong wicket
TNN, Feb 19, 2011, 05.34am IST

CHENNAI: By roping the PMK into its fold, the DMK chief M Karunanidhi
has forged a strong Vanniyar-dalit combination, which will have a
telling effect on the electoral outcome in more than 40 segments in 15
districts in northern, western and central Tamil Nadu.

Vanniyars comprise 28% of the population in the state and dalits 18%.
As the PMK and the VCK stood divided in opposite camps in the 2009 Lok
Sabha polls, the PMK suffered a humiliating defeat, losing all the
seven seats it contested.

Looking at the strengths of both the fronts on the basis of the
percentage of votes polled by various parties in the 2009 Lok Sabha
elections, the present DMK-Congress-PMK-VCK combine's voteshare add up
to 47%. On the contrary, the present AIADMK front comprising AIADMK,
MDMK, CPI and CPM add up to only 31.5% votes. Even by including the
DMDK, which is likely to join that front, it falls short of the DMK
front by five per cent.

But such arithmetics fail to gauge educated neutral electorates' mind,
which keep changing based on election issues. Neutral voters are more
likely to dub the PMK-DMK tie-up opportunistic as they were fighting
each other till recently. The PMK's camp switching began in the 1998
Lok Sabha polls and has not gone down well with the electorate though
the party reaped electoral gains every time it shifted allegiance.

Also, the fallout of the 2G spectrum scam in urban centres and rising
costs could make elections tough for the ruling front.

Though the PMK is predominantly a Vanniyar party, majority of
Vanniyars are not with the PMK. The community votebase is spread
across all parties. Vijayakanth's DMDK has also gained acceptability
among youngsters in the community. The DMDK could prove vital in
blunting the PMK-VCK effect in northern Tamil Nadu. For the record,
PMK got 5.74% votes and VCK got 2.4% votes in the last parliamentary
polls, whereas the DMDK got 10.08%.

The DMK's offer of 31 seats to the PMK is perhaps Karunanidhi's
masterstroke of diplomacy to drive a harder bargain with the Congress,
which is demanding two seats per parliamentary constituency (total 78
seats) and share in power as well. Karunanidhi's defence in denying a
considerable hike from the 48 seats that the Congress contested in
2006 could be that after conceding 31 seats to the PMK, he does not
enjoy much leeway now. He also has to satisfy the VCK, which contested
in nine constituencies in 2006.

The PMK, formed in 1989, has performed erratically since it entered
the electoral fray in 1991. In its poll debut, contesting in 194
constituencies, the PMK mustered a sizeable 5.89% of the polled votes,
though it won only in one seat. Its voteshare fell drastically to
3.84% in 1996 when it once again stood alone, but it won four out of
116 segments. As part of the AIADMK alliance in 2001, it won 20 out of
27 seats contested and polled 5.56% votes. But, despite contesting in
31 segments in 2006, its voteshare remained more or less the same and
the party could win only 18 seats.

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