http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-11-13/india/30393645_1_presidential-polls-lok-sabha-polls-rahul-gandhi
Mayawati sounds battle cry, slams Rahul Gandhi
TNN Nov 13, 2011, 04.46AM IST
NEW DELHI: Mayawati set the tone for Rahul Gandhi's Monday campaign
launch with a stinging attack on Congress heir apparent, sounding the
battle for Uttar Pradesh whose outcome would have a bearing beyond
Lucknow to influence Presidential election, the leadership issue in
Congress and even pick the front-runner for next parliamentary polls.
The high-voltage battle was well and truly underway five months in
advance with Mayawati's Saturday offensive. The attack may only get
shriller, with BSP organizing a 'Brahmin Sammelan' on Sunday.
Rahul Gandhi would kickstart the party's campaign a day later from
Allahabad and is sure to return Mayawati's fire. The to-and-fro may
paint the polls in 'Mayawati vs Rahul' terms, a running theme since
the Amethi MP took the charge to revive marginalized Congress in state
and earned the Dalit czarina's ire.
With Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav having hit the poll street with
'kranti rath' weeks ago and BJP's Kalraj Mishra and Rajnath Singh
leading yatras across the state, the picture is complete for what
would be a hard fought, four-way contest.
The polls would determine the fate of Mulayam Singh Yadav's future-if
SP is the second pole of a bipolar polity or has ceded space to
marginal forces seeking rejuvenation like Congress. Given his failure
to eke out a power deal with Congress at the Centre, SP's stumble in
state would mean it being out in the cold again. It would be an
invitation for its "secular" rivals to wean away key voting groups
like Muslims and backwards from its fold. The barren power patch could
pose an existential threat to the Yadav chieftain.
For BJP, the do-or-die battle is yet another attempt to resurrect its
fortunes in a state it led as the principal force before sliding to
the fate Congress suffered post-Babri. Another failure could puncture
the momentum it has gained against Congress at the Centre and may deal
a fatal blow to its chances for the 2014 polls. Insiders agree that
inability to revive in the 80-MP state would dilute the seriousness of
its claims of being in the running for Delhi.
The results in Maya citadel may have the biggest influence on Congress
politics - help it swat challenges like Anna Hazare and give a leg-up
to Rahul Gandhi who would take over as party chief or sink it further
in negativity with civil society-Opposition combo pinning it down
further. The implications for Rahul's leadership would be immense,
insiders say, as Congress's tally in UP would determine its chances in
the next Lok Sabha polls.
As key players trudge into the poll battlefield amid concerns that
Mayawati's machinery could deliver even in adverse situation,
observers in national politics are more eagerly fixed on the rough and
tumble of UP than before.
The affiliation of the huge bloc of 402 MLAs would majorly decide the
extent to which Congress may have to slug it out for the next occupant
of Rashtrapati Bhavan. The new assembly may be just in time to vote
for the presidential polls. Crucially, with elections over, the
"secular" considerations of BSP and SP may not be so strong to inhibit
adventurous decision-making. This is one possibility Congress would be
watching carefully and its stakes in the Presidential poll may make
the party vulnerable to arm-twisting.
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With two years to go, the UP polls may cast a shadow on central
coalition. A return mandate for Mayawati could change the UPA's
equations with BSP which has been vulnerable enough to back the Centre
despite fierce enmity. While the buffer in SP is always available for
UPA, the party may seek a share in power to offset any disappointment
in state.
The choice before Congress would thus be stark, with any compromise
bringing to naught its policy to recover its lost influence by not
aligning with anyone.
Finally, the perception which goes out of UP could realign the
equations in burgeoning minority politics. A sign of shrinking
Congress, observers say, could send Muslims towards the "secular"
regional parties to stave off BJP challenge. It would directly impair
the Congress muscle after the party benefitted from a one-way
polarization of community in its favour in 2009 LS polls.
This could be the biggest offshoot of UP polls.
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