http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/Anna-Wikileaks-rewrite-political-equations-in-UP/articleshow/9950818.cms
Anna, Wikileaks rewrite political equations in UP
TNN | Sep 12, 2011, 05.11AM IST
Anna Hazare's movement against corruption has virtually taken the
sting out of Congress attack against Uttar Pradesh chief minister
Mayawati on the issue of corruption. What has added to the chaos is
internal bickering on the issue of ticket distribution for the 2012
assembly elections.
The central leadership is hurrying with the Land Acquisition Bill to
compensate the loss due to the Anna effect. Congress would also like
to bring a Lokpal Bill, which may not be as strong as Anna"s Jan
Lokpal Bill, but acceptable to a majority in the parliament. However,
the task may not an easy one, as BJP and Left parties will not give up
easily on corruption and Lokpal issue.
In such a situation, it will be essential for Congress to enter into
an alliance or at least a seat sharing formula with small parties like
RLD for 2012 assembly polls. However, party leaders admit that
post-Anna movement, their bargaining power has reduced. In a bid to
minimise the loss caused due to Anna effect, the Congress is not only
playing communal card by projecting RSS hand in Anna's movement, but
may also announce reservation for Muslims in government educational
institutes and job.
Besides (mis)using CBI probe against SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav in
disproportionate assets case, another factor, which will decide its
future relations with SP is the WikiLeaks expose that Congress
president Sonia Gandhi was in favour of fielding a weak candidate
against Mulayam Singh Yadav's daughter-in-law in 2009 Firozabad
parliamentary by-elections. But, Rahul put the foot down and fielded
Raj Babbar, who won the seat. The anxiety in Congress is not about
2012 alone. A loss in assembly election may have a cascading effect on
2014 general election. At stake is Gandhi scion's credibility.
Bahujan Samaj Party:
The WikiLeaks expose has given the Opposition a weapon to launch a
personal attack on Mayawati, who has been taking high moral ground
after sacking four ministers on charges of corruption in recent past.
Though the party has not changed its strategy for the 2012 polls,
leaders admit that WikiLeaks have injected 'some amount of mistrust'
in Team Maya, which may have an adverse impact on poll results.
Accusations against rivals is a common practice in politics. But,
WikiLeaks has been embarrassing for the Dalit leader because it shows
Maya's close aides calling her 'corrupt' and 'dictator'. The BSP will
go alone in the elections and if defeated will sit in Opposition, but
leaders do not rule out the possibility of a post-poll tie up with
other like-minded parties in case of a hung assembly. In such a
scenario, they also do not rule out possibilities of post-poll
'defections and merger' to form a government.
Samajwadi Party:
Party leaders claim that only Samajwadi Party is in a position to
defeat the ruling BSP at the hustings. But, they are also anxious
after the arrest of its former general secretary Amar Singh in
connection with cash-for-vote scandal during 2008 trust vote in the
Parliament over Indo-US nuclear deal. Singh can drag several SP and
Congress leaders into the scandal. However, only Congress is in a
position to strike a deal with Singh. In such a scenario, the SP may
have to enter into some understanding with the Congress. WikiLeaks
also show that Congress had tried to help Mulayam in disproportionate
assets case after he bailed out UPA 1 in July 2008 trust vote, but,
could not do so, due to Supreme Court's intervention. In such a
situation, one should not be surprised, if SP enters into some tacit
understanding before 2012 elections. As of now, the SP has announced
that it will go to polls alone, but has not ruled out the possibility
of a pre-poll seat sharing arrangement or post-poll 'anti-BJP and
anti-BSP' alliance in case of a hung assembly.
Bharatiya Janata Party:
The party hopes to get maximum benefit in the present political
atmosphere in the state. However, its biggest problem is that it has
too many 'big' leaders. Internal bickering has demoralised the cadre.
A section of party leaders are in favour of post-poll alliance with
BSP, but workers have strong reservations. They feel that past 'power
sharing' alliances with BSP have led to erosion of BJP's base. As a
result of which, BJP graph in UP has been on the decline in the last
one decade. The Anna movement has awakened the middle-class. A high
middle-class voter turnout would help the BJP particularly in urban
constituency. BJP's gain would be loss for SP and Congress. In such a
situation, a covert understanding with BSP will help both the parties,
a party leader said.
Rashtriya Lok Dal:
The RLD chief Ajit Singh has formed a coalition of small parties like
the Peace Party, which he believes will play a crucial role in
formation of the government in UP after 2012 assembly elections. The
combined power of the coalition has increased his bargaining power for
a pre-poll or post-poll alliance. The coalition of six small parties
he leads may not win desired number of seats, but can harm prospects
of others. The party so far has been limited to the Jat belt of west
UP. But, this time it is trying to expand in central and east UP
through campaigns and alliance with small parties having influence in
specific areas.
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