* Posted: Tue, Apr 12 2011. 12:22 AM IST
Economy and Politics
Dalits, youth may tilt the scales in tight electoral race
With no apparent wave favouring either of the dominant Dravidian
parties, the outcome is too close to call
Liz Mathew
Chennai/Coimbatore: Jayapriya, a young housewife in Avinashi
constituency, is a fan of Tamil Nadu chief minister and Dravida
Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leader Muthuvel Karunanidhi. She does not
dispute the allegations of corruption against Karunanidhi and his
family. "But he does things for people in Tamil Nadu."
However, Jayapriya's neighbour, Manikandan, argues that Karunanidhi
has been "a chief minister obsessed with his family" who could not do
anything to contain the price rise. "He gives rice at Rs. 1 for a
kilogramme. But it's not edible rice, people buy it and use it as
cattle feed. Everything else is expensive. He and his family have
stolen the public money."
The two points of view adequately capture the polarized opinion across
the state, regardless of caste, village, region or community. Not
surprisingly, this is probably the first time that there is no
apparent wave favouring either the DMK or the All India Anna Dravida
Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK); every indication that this election is too
close to call.
The odds
There are several factors, including anti-incumbency and double-digit
food inflation working against the ruling DMK and its allies, which
includes the Congress. Unlike states such as Bihar, Tamil Nadu is far
more urbanized and, hence, more susceptible to food inflation and less
accepting of allegations of corruption; a discourse that is common in
local tea shops. "The prices of tomato, garlic and pulses are so high
that no common man can afford it. What's the point in getting rice at
Rs. 1," asked Selvaraj, a tailor in Sriperumbudur, where AIADMK
candidate M. Perumal's campaign focused on the DMK government's
failure to contain prices.
However, the welfare schemes introduced during the last five years, as
well as the freebies that have been promised and delivered, seem to
mitigate some of this damage.
On the other hand, for Jayalalithaa, it's a do-or-die battle. In the
wilderness till recently following the 2006 electoral debacle, the
involvement of the DMK leaders in alleged acts of corruption has come
as a shot in the arm for Jayalalithaa. At the same time, her former
mentor, the late M.G. Ramachandran, continues to draw support from the
Dalits, who account for a fifth of the population. However, her
biggest achievement during the run-up to the election seems to be the
electoral alliance with the actor Vijayakanth-led Desiya Murpokku
Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK). The fact that this advantage is not
translating into a wave as yet should be disconcerting to the AIADMK.
The Dalit factor
A tight electoral race as well as the growing fragmentation of the
vote means fringe players are becoming increasingly important. Not
surprising, therefore, that there was a great urgency among both
parties to tie up alliances to take advantage of the complex social
arithmetic of the state involving Dalits.
While the DMK forged an alliance with the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal
Katchi (VCK) to hold on to its Dalit support, AIADMK managed to rope
in the Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) party. The ruling party also tied with
the Pattali Makkal Katchi for Vanniyar community support, Kongunadu
Munnetra Kazhagam (KMK) for Gounders and Moovendar Munnetra Kazhagam
(MMK) for Thevars, Perunthalaivar Makkal Katchi for Nadars. But the
AIADMK has the All India Moovendar Munnetra Kazhagam for Thevars and
the All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi for the Nadars.
The splintering of the Dalit vote has made them politically less
effective than say in Uttar Pradesh, where the community accounts for
16% of the population but votes cohesively for the Bahujan Samaj Party
(BSP). Meena Kandasamy, a young writer who worked with Thirumavalavan,
president of VCK, the largest Dalit party in Tamil Nadu, said the
basic difference between the BSP and the VCK was the latter remained a
social movement and boycotted elections for at least nine years since
its inception in 1989, while the BSP was always a vote-based party.
"The VCK did not seek the partnership of the OBCs (other backward
classes) or minorities for the sake of vote, but for the sake of caste
annihilation," she said. "The VCK organizes religious and sexual
minorities/LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender), backward
castes and other sections of the society purely on ideological basis.
However, for the BSP, these are only for vote-bank politics and such
relationship exists only at the time of elections."
Despite constituting a major part of the population, 80% of Dalits in
the state do not own land and 50% of them are illiterate. They have
been supporting the AIADMK and the DMK since the 1960s, prior to which
they were aligned with the Congress, which continues to enjoy support
among some sections of Dalits. After taking the plunge into electoral
politics, VCK and PT had polled 41% of Dalit votes in 1999 in the
state, but could not carve out a political space for themselves.
Voters are divided over the impact of caste-based parties on the
election. While Jayapriya swears that everyone in Tamil Nadu votes for
the candidate belonging to their caste, Munisami, a resident of
Velampalayam, feels that people vote for the candidates who work for
local development.
A.R. Natarajan, a Congress leader and the ruling front's candidate in
the Avinashi assembly constituency, admitted that the caste-based
groups' backing would definitely be a factor. "The KMK's support will
help me in getting the Gounder community votes in this constituency,"
he said.
The X factor
A factor that could additionally influence the final outcome can be
the youth, who seem to be seeking change. Recognizing this, most
political parties are fielding young candidates, which could influence
the demographic profile of the next legislature.
In fact, Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi was keen to play the
youth card in the election. Gandhi, according to at least three
Congress leaders, was keen to go it alone in Tamil Nadu in order to
cash in on the youth's yearning for change and to re-build the party
from the grassroots. However, the senior leadership of the party did
not favour breaking the alliance with the DMK, which could have
repercussions for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance
government at the Centre.
However, Gandhi managed to field around nine young candidates
belonging to the youth wing of the party across the state among the 63
constituencies being contested by the party. "Youth has a different
agenda and their priorities are different. So our campaign is
positive, based on the governance record and the development agenda of
the Democratic Progressive Alliance (Tamil Nadu's ruling alliance)
will strike a chord with the youngsters," said S. Jothimani, the
Congress candidate in Karur, another industrial hub near Tirupur.
Jothimani, for whom Gandhi campaigned on Wednesday in Karur town, said
she decided to focus on local issues. Karur is a centre for the
textile industry and has the second largest bus body building industry
after Punjab. "The AIADMK could not even play the role of an
opposition party in the last five years. Their alliance is in
disarray. When you look back, you will know that the Karunanidhi
government has delivered 90% of its promises," Jothimani said.
Similarly, the ruling DMK has fielded 25 young candidates, while the
AIADMK has offered 32 such candidates electoral tickets; the DMDK has
13 youngsters in its list of 41.
While the youth offer a potential vote bank, they may not be easy to
target for any electoral combine. Especially given that allegations of
taint haunt both sides.
"Youngsters are confused. In fact, they know that both sides are
equally corrupt," said N. Ali Akbar, a resident of Sriperumbudur.
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